As we await the excitement of Serie A once again, let's try to imagine the championship that will be possible thanks to the Supercomputer. It is the Opta Predictor, a model that calculates the percentages of the possibility that a team will finish the season in a certain position in the standings, based on betting company odds and the Opta Power Rankings, parameters that take into account historical and recent performances.
As reported by “Corriere dello Sport”, the algorithm table has quite clear ideas: Inter is the super favorite for the title ahead of Roma, while Como and Juventus are the teams predicted to occupy the other two places that lead to the Champions League. Milan is the first among the teams that remain outside the prestigious European competition. Napoli is even ranked seventh, even behind Lazio. In the relegation zone, Venezia is considered almost doomed, while Genoa and Parma are more at risk than the others.
Opta Predictions
These are the predictions related to Expected Points (Xpts), i.e. the possible points based on the goal chances created and allowed.
In this respect, Inter are expected to surpass the 78-point mark, with almost a 45% chance of winning the title and a full 88% chance of finishing in the top four. Roma are second with 73 points according to Opta and a 73% chance of securing a Champions League spot, while their chances of winning the title are just under 22% and are therefore halved compared to Inter, the reigning champions.
More than Como in third place, with 67 predicted points, a 10% chance of the title and 52% for the top four, attention is drawn to the last position that ensures qualification for the most prestigious competition.
Juventus are projected to finish in fourth place, still with 67 possible points and only an 8.91% chance of winning the title. However, they remain ahead of Milan, who are projected with 64 points and have a 37% chance of qualifying for the Champions League, as well as Lazio, who are ranked sixth with a full 33% chance of finishing in the top four.
What is perhaps most incredible, perhaps also due to their slow start to the season, concerns Napoli. Opta considers them seventh in the standings, with less than a 3% chance of winning the title and a 28.90% chance of returning to the Champions League. The top ten is then completed by Atalanta, Cagliari and Sassuolo.
As for the fight for survival, Venezia, who have 0 points after five losses but have decided to confirm Stroppan, are in very high risk of being relegated. The Supercomputer algorithm gives them a full 73.52% chance of an immediate return to Serie B.
Genoa is in penultimate place with a 41% chance of relegation, while Parma is penultimate with a 38%. Meanwhile, both Monza, with a 36.85% chance of relegation, and Lecce, with a 28.36% chance, would survive in Serie A.
