The results of the survey on the perception of systemic risks in the country by the banking sector show that, during the first half of 2026, the ranking of the main risks and their perception levels have shown changes, with increased concern related to property prices and political concerns, following the several-month wave of protests against the government.
The transmission of shocks from the external economy continues to be considered the most important systemic risk by banks. After a temporary mitigation in the second half of 2025, the assessment of this risk has increased again during the first half of 2026 from the level of “medium” to “high”.
This performance has reflected the ongoing uncertainties in the international economic and geopolitical environment and their potential to be transmitted to the Albanian economy.
The risk associated with fluctuations in the value of real estate has been classified as the second most important systemic risk of the period and its assessment has increased from "low" to "medium".
The continuous increase in real estate prices and the banking sector's significant exposure to this market continue to keep this risk among the factors that require continuous monitoring.
Although the intensity perceived by banks is not high, their concern is growing, particularly about the potential impact of a price correction on collateral value and credit risk.
The deterioration of the domestic economy continues to remain among the most important systemic risks in the country. In the perception of banks, the assessment of this risk has softened compared to the second half of 2025, but remains within the "average" level.
Cybersecurity risk continues to be perceived as one of the main systemic risks. However, the banking sector's assessment of its importance has decreased during the first half of 2026 compared to the two previous periods, which may be related to the investments and strategies undertaken by banks to limit this risk.
Despite this, in the context of the ever-increasing digitalization of financial services and the growing complexity of cyber threats, this risk has now become one of the main challenges of the banking business.
Finally, the perception of political risk has increased compared to the second half of 2025, being included in the list of key systemic risks.
The increase in this perception may be related to increasing uncertainties about political and institutional developments in the country, which may affect the expectations of economic agents and the business climate.
However, in the assessment of banks, the importance of this risk is still considered significantly lower compared to the other risks mentioned above.
In general terms, by the end of the first half of 2026, banks assess that the possibility of one or more systemic risks materializing in the short-term horizon (up to one year) remains below average, although this perception has increased slightly compared to the second half of 2025.
For the medium-term horizon (1–3 years), banks' perception of the materialization of these risks remains higher than the short-term one and has also increased during the period.
On the other hand, the good financial condition of the banking sector and the high level of liquidity continue to support banks' confidence in the stability of the financial system, which remains above average and almost unchanged compared to the previous six months./ Monitor
