"In the banks' portfolio, this exposure should not be distinguished from financing automatically equated with direct financing of construction companies," he adds.
So, although direct exposure to banks remains relatively low, the sector is dependent on the continuity of sales, the pace of collections and the functioning of the payment chain between builders, customers and suppliers. This dependence, warns Mr. Sulanjaku, makes the sector sensitive to any disruption in the cash cycle: a delay in collections can quickly translate into delayed payments to suppliers, an increase in unpaid liabilities and increased financial pressure along the entire construction chain.
"This risk becomes more sensitive in an environment where formal bank financing is not the main source of capital, as companies have less room to absorb temporary liquidity shocks through credit lines or bank refinancing. Consequently, the financial sustainability of the sector depends not only on the level of contracted sales, but also on the real speed of their conversion into cash."
This model also creates a significant risk: liquidity risk. If customer collections are delayed, if sales slow down, or if suppliers demand faster payments, companies can face immediate pressure on cash inflows and the ability to meet operating obligations on time.
In conclusion, the company balance sheets suggest that large builders do not rely dominantly on direct bank financing. “However, this does not diminish the importance of the sector or make it less important to the financial system.
On the contrary, banks' exposure to the real estate market remains significant through lending to individuals and businesses purchasing properties, which often serves as an indirect source of financing for construction projects during the development phase.
For this reason, the risk assessment of the sector is measured not only by the level of bank loans on builders' balance sheets, but by the entire financing chain of the real estate market and the relationship between the pace of sales, mortgage loans, collections from customers and liabilities to suppliers," says Mr. Sulanjaku.
Will the expected new wave of construction materialize?!
From 2025, INSTAT will no longer publish the full area of construction permits issued, as it only provides information on construction permits based on data provided by municipalities.
INSTAT has clarified that the reported data does not include permits above 7 floors that are granted by the National Council for Territory and Water (KKTU). As a result, in 2025, the declared area of permits was only 1.3 million square meters (almost halved), granted only by municipalities.
Although KKTU has continuously issued construction permits for towers and resorts, there has been no transparency about the amount of surface area allocated for construction in 2025 and the first 5 months of 2026.
An indirect estimate based on the strong growth in infrastructure tax revenues suggests a new wave of construction.
According to data from the Ministry of Finance, revenues from the infrastructure impact tax alone reached 18.3 billion lek for the first 6 months of 2026, tripling from the same period in 2025.
For comparison, for the entire year 2024, 18.6 billion lek were collected from the infrastructure tax and in 2025, about 16 billion lek. About 68% of this amount was collected from Tirana alone.
Unlike the last cycle, which was mainly concentrated in Tirana, the new wave seems to have included not only the capital, but also the coast. In Himara, collections increased by 300%, in Saranda by 576%, in Durrës by 58%, in Kavaja by 37%.
In the Golem beach area, permits have been granted for high-rise construction, and in the South, numerous permits have been granted for resorts, some of which have sparked public resistance like the one in Zvërnec.
Time will tell whether the envisaged projects will materialize, or remain only on paper due to lack of funding or weakening demand.
However, in Albania, any prediction remains difficult, as an unpredictable factor always enters the equation: informal flows./Monitor
